If the AK Party insists on an “adultery article”, all hope rests on the possibility of the law as it is passed being vetoed - in part - by the President.

If the AK Party then, satisfied that it has curried favour with its supporters, does not force it through a second time, but leaves it to cool down like the Higher Education Law. This is also a solution.

For the debate about adultery has provided a “surprise opportunity” for those wanting to put the skids on Turkey’s hopes of getting a date from the EU.

I am given to understand from Brussels that the Greek Cypriot lobby is even saying, “You see why we said NO to uniting with the Turks in the referendum.”

Among Turkey’s opponents one increasingly hears the comment that, “Turkey is not mature enough for membership. It is incapable of harmonising with European culture. We therefore argue that Turkey cannot become European”. Criminalising adultery is presented as “penalising flirting, compulsory virginity, a backward step for women's rights.”

Why upset the apple cart for nothing?

Let's not exaggerate

Well, will this article criminalising adultery negatively effect the EU decision?

This claim - for the time being - is exaggerated.

Those in the upper echelons of the EU are aware that the AK Party government has also overcome many difficult obstacles to achieve EU harmonisation. For example:

Reducing the influence of the military in State administration, Kurdish education and broadcasting, and similar measures.

The AK Party, with its signature to this transformation that would have been unthinkable a few years earlier, is not going to be erased from the copybook just because of the article criminalising adultery.

However, adultery may appear in Turkey’s October report as a major minus.

Of course all this is assuming that, even if the article passes through parliament, it is not vetoed by President Sezer along with a few other “EU-incompatible” articles that have been introduced into the Turkish Penal Code.

And such a “partial veto” is a hope/possibility being whispered to EU summits by our diplomats.

The road continues

As far as being given a date by the EU is concerned, we can say, “It is clear from Verheugen’s arrival in September that there will be an October report. December’s decision will be made clear in the October report.”

Consequently, the December full membership negotiation date is in sight. The light at the end of a 56-year tunnel.

It seems following Verheugen’s visit to Turkey that the final doubts have been dispelled. Of course positive signs have been visible on the horizon prior to these months.

On the other hand, having so much time before us makes this a convenient period for us to pave the road.

On this point, who would have dreamed just a few months ago at a time when EU harmonisation amendments were being made to the Turkish Penal Code that among them would be a provision such as that to criminalise adultery.

The AK Party may well yet again trip itself and Turkey up.

Those waiting in ambush abroad, not least the Armenian lobby, may set off the mines they have placed on the road.

If nothing else, Turkey should avoid providing them with any ammunition.

Pre and post

Nevertheless, it is apparent from the statements of persons authorised to speak on behalf of the EU that the October report and the December decision on a date “should and will be without preconditions.”

The problem here is not giving Turkey a date; it is explaining to European public opinion that a process has started leading to Turkey’s full membership and to get European societies to accept this. For this reason, the December announcement granting a date and the October report that will serve as the basis for this announcement will not impose “preconditions”, but this does not mean that it won’t impose “post-conditions”.

In other words, the announcement granting a date for full membership negotiations will contain a whole host of “buts”. The number of these “buts” will create an “uncertainty factor” for Turkey concerning its future. And Ankara needs to avoid tripping itself up if it wants to reduce this factor.